USDJPY and USDCAD Downside Threat Post Fed Rate Hike

usdjpy chart

  • A rate hike from the Fed on Wednesday 21st March as anticipated, but an overall more cautious, dovish tone has been the takeaway, sending the US Dollar lower against major currencies.
  • For USDJPY the selloff has rejected the March basing effort and now sets risks lower within the overall bear trend.
  • The plunge lower for USDCAD has threatened the bull trend evident from February, with a shift to neutral possible, but only below 1.2801.

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USDJPY Negative tone

A dip Wednesday Thursday from below our next 106.75 resistance (from 106.64) to reject the bounce effort Tuesday and resume negative pressures from last week’s setback through 106.22/11 supports, shifting the bias lower for Thursday.

The mid-January selloff below 112.01 produced an intermediate-term bearish shift.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 105.57 and 105.43; break here aims for the cycle low at 105.25.
  • But above 106.64/75 opens risk up to 107.30, maybe 107.68.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • Whilst below 108.00 we see a bear theme with the downside threat to 104.93,104.06 and 101.15.

What Changes This? Above 108.00 signals a neutral tone, shifting bullish below 109.31.

Resistance and Support:

106.64/75 107.30** 107.68** 107.90/108.00*** 108.51*
105.90 105.57/43* 105.25/16** 105.00/104.93*** 104.55

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

usdjpy chart


USDCAD Plunge and downside risks

A significant sell off Wednesday through multiple supports, the lowest being the 1.2916/13 area, rejecting the recent bull trend and shifting the threat lower for Thursday.

The latter February break above 1.2728  set a bullish intermediate-term view. BUT at risk through 1.2801.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.2871; break here aims for 1.2827, maybe key 1.2801.
  • But above 1.2908 opens risk up to 1.2971.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:

  • Whilst above 1.2801 we see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.3347.

What Changes This? Below 1.2801 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 11.2612.

Resistance and Support:

1.3076 1.3125/33* 1.3168 1.3200/03 1.3247
1.3005 1.2976 1.2940* 1.2916/13** 1.2871

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

 usdcad chart


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