USDJPY Basing Effort into Japanese and US Consumer Data

Technical Analysis


A basing attempt by USDJPY on Thursday ahead of notable data events from Japan and the USA. On Friday 17th April the market will receive Japanese Consumer Confidence data, followed by US CPI and Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.

USDJPY Rebound Bias

A more significant setback this week has rejected in the very near term a more bullish shift through 121.20.

However, the forming of a base ahead of chart support at 118.74/72 leaves a rebound bias into the range into Friday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 119.48 and 119.76; break here aims for 120.04.
  • But below 118.72 opens risk down to the 118.33/15 area, which we would look to try to hold.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the broader range defined by 121.20 and 118.15.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 121.20 aims higher for the new 122.02 peak and to a key long term retracement at 122.45.
  • Downside: Below 118.15 sees risk lower for 117.17 and 116.64.

A better consolidation bounce Wednesday, but the previous push this week down through trend line/ chart supports reinforced bearish pressures from the late March Weekly Gravestone Doji and leaves bias for further losses into April.

Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

  • For April we see a negative tone with the bearish threat through the April low at .7533 and to the psychological/ option target at .7500.
  • Below aims for a key chart level from 2009 at .7267.
  • Through here even sees risk to the 78.6% retracement of the entire 2008-11 rally at .7095.

What Changes This? Above .7741 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7939.

Daily USDJPY Chart


4 Hour USDJPY Chart


Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.