USDJPY Intermediate-Term Bull Shift, but USDCAD Bull Theme Correcting


  • For USDCAD, a recent setback points to the immediate risks as lower, but the intermediate-term bull trend is intact whilst above 1.2945.


USDJPY Rebound bias after intermediate-term bull shift

A dip Wednesday just below the 110.37/35 support area, but a rebound from 110.25 sustains the bull bias from Monday’s probe above the key 111.08 impulse resistance from May, leaving a rebound bias for Thursday.

The early July prod above 111.08 shifted the intermediate-term view to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 111.13, then the cycle peak at 111.40, maybe 111.88
  • But below 110.25 opens risk down to 109.95, maybe for 109.65

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 111.40/48.

  • Higher targets would be 113.39/55 and 114.73.
  • What Changes This? Below 109.35 shifts the outlook back to neutral; just below through 109.17 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

111.13 111.40*** 111.88 112.27 112.79
110.25 109.95 109.66* 109.35 109.17/14**

4 Hour USDJPY Chart



USDCAD Downside correction bias

A prod lower Wednesday below 1.3126/20 support, to reinforce Tuesday’s setback and further dismiss Monday’s rebound and whilst below 1.3227 we still see downside pressures from the small Double Top pattern below 1.3256/55 support, keeping risk lower for Thursday.

The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend, intact whilst above 1.2945.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3107; break here aims for 1.3082 and maybe towards 1.3025.
  • But above 1.3227 opens risk up to 1.3268; break here maybe aims for 1.3351.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3347.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3794.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2945 shifts the outlook bullish straight to a bear trend.

Resistance and Support:

1.3227 1.3268** 1.3351* 1.3382/86** 1.3405
1.3107 1.3082* 1.3025 1.3000* 1.2945***

4 Hour USDCAD Chart


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