USDJPY Intermediate-Term Bull Trend Re-Energized; USDCAD Stays Positive

USDJPY Chart 2018-07-16

  • The US Dollar continues to strengthen against major OECD and Emerging Markets currencies into July, with traders seeking a safe haven amid growing trade wars concerns and apparently viewing the US$ as a safer option than even the Japanese Yen in this scenario.
  • In our prior article here regarding the USDJPY Forex rate on 5th July, we highlighted an intermediate-term bullish shift, which has been reinforced by recent gains to multi-month highs.
  • For USDCAD, the earlier July corrective setback eased the intermediate-term bull trend, but the mid-July recovery from above 1.2945 sustains upside risks.


Bull trend still energized

Another prod higher Friday to hit our 112.79 target and build on Thursday’s surge through resistances at the cycle peak at 111.40, 111.88 and 112.27, and despite an intraday setback leaving an upside bias Monday.

The early July push above 111.08 shifted the intermediate-term view to bullish.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 112.79; above here aims at key targets at 113.39 and 113.55, maybe towards 113.91.
  • But below 111.88 aims for the 111.35/23 area (which we would look to hold); below opens risk down to the 110.74/68 area.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 113.39/55.

  • Higher targets would be 114.73, 115.50/63 and maybe towards 118.65.
  • What Changes This? Below 110.25 shifts the outlook back to neutral; only through 109.35 signals for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

112.79 113.39** 113.55*** 113.91* 114.27
111.88* 111.35/23** 110.74/68** 110.28/25*** 109.95

4 Hour Chart

USDJPY Chart 2018-07-16


Holding onto an upside bias

A Friday rally and setback, but still holding above 1.3115 initial support, leaving upside forces intact from the rally after the Bank of Canada rate decision last Wednesday (through 1.3174/76 resistances), to keep the bias higher Monday.

The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend, BUT we see growing risk for an intermediate-term shift to neutral below 1.2945.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3218 and then quickly to 1.3225/27 and then 1.3268.
  • But below 1.3115 opens risk down to 1.3061.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3347.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3794.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2945 shifts the outlook bullish straight to a bear trend.

Resistance and Support:

1.3218 1.3225/27* 1.3268** 1.3351* 1.3382/86**
1.3115 1.3061* 1.3025 1.3000* 1.2945***

4 Hour Chart

USDCAD Chart 2018-07-16

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