USDJPY Positive Range Theme; USDCAD Negative Tone in a Bull Trend


  • We last looked at USDJPY and USDCAD currency pair on 20th March with a short-term negative outlook for both.
  • The USDJPY FX rate since the latter March Fed Meeting has weakened and then rebounded, setting an intermediate-term range, but with the very short-term bias to the upside.
  • The USDCAD Forex rate has further weakened through late March, with immediate risks staying to the downside, although defined by an intermediate-term bull trend.


USDJPY Upside bias in broader range

A prod higher Friday to build on Thursday dip’s to just prod at 110.00 support then immediately rebound from 109.99 through notable 110.71 resistance, further rejecting bear forces from the, latter March selloff (close to a key 109.66 support, to 109.69), to keep the bias higher Monday.

We now see an intermediate-term range as 109.69/66 to 112.14.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 111.19; break here aims towards 111.70.
  • But below 110.00/109.99 opens risk down to 109.69/66.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 109.69/66 to 112.14.

  • Upside Risks: Above 112.14 sets a bull trend to aim for 71, 114.55 and 115.00.
  • Downside Risks: Below 69/66 sees a bear trend to target 108.47, 107.74, 106.72/55 and 105.00.

Resistance and Support:

111.19 111.70* 111.90 112.14*** 112.64*
110.00/109.99* 109.69/66*** 109.23 108.85* 108.47***

4 Hour USDJPY Chart


USDCAD Risks flip lower

A Friday plunge below 1.3372 and 1.3348 supports to reject for now the positive tone from the latter March advance through 1.3401 and 1.3417 resistances, switching risks lower for Monday.

The early March surge through 1.3375 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for 1.3334; break here aims for 1.3286, maybe 1.3246.
  • But above 1.3396 opens risk up to 1.3449.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3665.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3794 and 1.4000.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.3110 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.3064 is needed for a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3396 1.3449* 1.3469/74/88* 1.3500 1.3567
1.3334 1.3286 1.3246* 1.3206 1.3154

4 Hour USDCAD Chart


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