USDJPY and USDCAD Correcting Lower, but December Threat Higher

usdjpy chart

  • A slightly more negative US$ tone surfacing this week and again evident after the Fed hiked rates on Wednesday 13th
  • This has seen USDCAD corrective weakness alongside a notable setback in USDJPY, which we look to likely extend this week.
  • However, although the very short-term theme is for USDCAD and USDJPY to push lower, the December outlook is for a more positive US$ tone to resurface against both the Canadian Dollar and Japanese Yen.

Read all technical forex analyses

USDJPY Negative bias short-term

A more negative tone on Wednesday with a setback from 113.75 through 113.10 and 112.60/55 supports through the FOMC Meeting, easing the immediate recovery theme from late November, flipping the bias lower into Thursday.

The earlier December break above 113.33 produced a shift from a bearish intermediate-term outlook to a neutral, broader range theme for December.

For Today:

  • We see a negative tone to aim through 112.44 for 111.97, maybe closer to 111.39.
  • But back above 113.45 quickly targets 113,75, maybe 113.91.

Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 114.73 and 110.82.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 114.73 aims higher for 115.50/63 and maybe towards the late 2016 cycle peak at 118.65.
  • Downside: Below 110.82 sees risk lower for 110.00 and potentially closer to 109.53 and maybe 107.29.

Resistance and Support:

113.45 113.75* 113.91** 114.34** 114.74***
112.44 111.97* 111.39** 111.12 110/82***

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

usdjpy chart


USDCAD Negative tone

A negative consolidation Wednesday with a dip below initial support at 1.2804 for a very mini-topping pattern, shifting the immediate bias lower for Thursday.

The early December break below the 1.2668/62 area produced an intermediate term shift from bullish to a neutral, range theme.

For Today:

  • We see a negative tone through 1.2789 for 1.2750; below maybe aims at the 1.2648/20 area.
  • But above 1.2850 aims at 1.2892 and maybe for the key peaks at 1.2909/15/17.

 Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2429 and 1.2917.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above 1.2429 aims higher for 1.3015, 1.3347 and 1.3550.
  • Downside: Below 1.2429 sees risk lower for 1.2194 and 1.2060.

Resistance and Support:

1.2850 1.2892 1.2909/15/17** 1.2930/33 1.3000/15**
1.2789 1.2750 1.2648/20** 1.2609* 1.2567

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

usdcad chart 

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