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AUDUSD and NZDUSD bear themes

audusd

  • In our 18th April report here we emphasised a bear signal and shift for NZDUSD but a still positive AUDUSD tone.
  • Since then, deteriorating Australian economic data has seen the AUDUSD Forex rate push back lower, rejecting any immediate upside threats and resuming the intermediate-term bearish theme.
  • The plunge in the NZDUSD currency pair has been reinforced with further losses into latter April and leaves risks still lower into month-end and May.

 

AUDUSD downside risks intact

A rebound effort Friday just up through modest .7050 resistance, but then a stall back from .7061, which leaves negative pressures from Thursday’s push through key .6999 support after last Wednesday’s aggressive plunge, through multiple supports (from .7104/00 to .7122 after Australian CPI data), to keep risks lower for Monday.

The early February push .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see a downside bias for .6986; break here aims for .6949, maybe even .6916.
  • But above .7061 sees little resistance up towards .7103.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.

  • Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
  • What Changes This? Above .7207 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.7061 .7103* .7140/52 .7207*** .7246*
.6986 .6949* .6916 .6870/67 .6829*

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

audusd

 

NZDUSD negative outlook (despite a bounce)

A further rebound Friday through .6659 resistance, but faltering from within our .6779/82 resistance zone, to hold onto negative forces from Thursday’s probe Thursday below a key, multi-month low at .6583, plus from the earlier April surrender of the key .6716 level, leaving the bias lower Monday.

The April push below .6716 set an intermediate-term bear theme.

For Today:

  • We see a downside bias for .6616; break here aims for .6578.
  • But above .6779/82 opens risk up to .6724, maybe .6748.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6583.

  • Lower targets would be .6347 and .6195
  • What Changes This? Above .6783 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .6837 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

.6779/82* .6724* .6748* .6782/83*** .6799/6800*
.6616 .6578 .6542 .6519 .6500**

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

nzdusd

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