- In our last look at USDCAD and USDJPY here on 28th October we highlighted intermediate-term bear trends that were under threat.
- Subsequent US Dollar gains have seen USDCAD nudge recently through a key resistance at 1.3228, shifting the intermediate-term outlook from bearish to bullish.
- For USDJPY, the late October rally above 112.89 has seen neutralised the intermediate-term bear trend and a shift to an intermediate-term range, but with risks skewed towards an intermediate-term bullish switch, signalled above 114.55.
USDCAD Intermediate-term bullish shift
We have stressed in past reports that “we see an intermediate-term bearish theme, BUT still see growing threat for an intermediate-term bullish shift above 1.3226” and the Friday probe above here sets an intermediate-term bull tone.
Furthermore, this positive price action sets the bias higher Monday.
- We see an upside bias for 1.3233; above here quickly aims for 1.3247, maybe 1.3290 and even towards 1.3351.
- But below 1.3168 targets 1.3136 and opens risk down to 1.3084.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3386.
- Higher targets would be 1.3500, 1.3777 and 1.4000/17.
- What Changes This? Below 1.2966 shifts the outlook back to neutral and the quickly through 1.2912 sees a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour USDCAD Chart
USDJPY Upside risks intact
A new recovery high Thursday through the 113.81/82 resistance area and despite a setback, initial support at 113.19 has not been approached, leaving upside forces intact from the November advance through the 113.38/39 area AND the strong latter October rally through key 112.89 resistance, to keep risks higher Monday.
The late October push above 112.89 set an intermediate-term range theme defined as 111.35 to 114.55, with risks skewed slightly towards an intermediate-term bullish shift above 114.55.
- We see an upside bias for 114.10/15 and maybe the key 114.55 level.
- But below 113.19 targets 112.96 and then maybe aims at 112.53.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 111.35 to 114.55.
- Upside Risks: Above 114.55 sets a bull trend to aim for 115.50/63, 118.65 and 120.00.
- Downside Risks: Below 111.35 sees a bear trend to target 110.36 and 109.74.
- back to neutral; above 114.55 is needed for a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour USDJPY Chart