USDCAD and USDJPY Intermediate-Term Bullish Shifts and Risks

usdcad chart

  • In our last look at USDCAD and USDJPY here on 28th October we highlighted intermediate-term bear trends that were under threat.
  • Subsequent US Dollar gains have seen USDCAD nudge recently through a key resistance at 1.3228, shifting the intermediate-term outlook from bearish to bullish.
  • For USDJPY, the late October rally above 112.89 has seen neutralised the intermediate-term bear trend and a shift to an intermediate-term range, but with risks skewed towards an intermediate-term bullish switch, signalled above 114.55.


USDCAD Intermediate-term bullish shift

We have stressed in past reports that “we see an intermediate-term bearish theme, BUT still see growing threat for an intermediate-term bullish shift above 1.3226” and the Friday probe above here sets an intermediate-term bull tone.

Furthermore, this positive price action sets the bias higher Monday.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 1.3233; above here quickly aims for 1.3247, maybe 1.3290 and even towards 1.3351.
  • But below 1.3168 targets 1.3136 and opens risk down to 1.3084.

 Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3386.

  • Higher targets would be 1.3500, 1.3777 and 1.4000/17.
  • What Changes This? Below 1.2966 shifts the outlook back to neutral and the quickly through 1.2912 sees a bear theme.

Resistance and Support:

1.3233 1.3247 1.3290** 1.3351 1.3382/86***
1.3168 1.3136* 1.3084** 1.3052/44** 1.3022/11*

4 Hour USDCAD Chart

usdcad chart

USDJPY Upside risks intact

A new recovery high Thursday through the 113.81/82 resistance area and despite a setback, initial support at 113.19 has not been approached, leaving upside forces intact from the November advance through the 113.38/39 area AND the strong latter October rally through key 112.89 resistance, to keep risks higher Monday.

The late October push above 112.89 set an intermediate-term range theme defined as 111.35 to 114.55, with risks skewed slightly towards an intermediate-term bullish shift above 114.55.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for 114.10/15 and maybe the key 114.55 level.
  • But below 113.19 targets 112.96 and then maybe aims at 112.53.

Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 111.35 to 114.55.

  • Upside Risks: Above 114.55 sets a bull trend to aim for 115.50/63, 118.65 and 120.00.
  • Downside Risks: Below 111.35 sees a bear trend to target 110.36 and 109.74.
  • back to neutral; above 114.55 is needed for a bull theme.

Resistance and Support:

114.10/15 114.55*** 114.83 115.00* 115.50/63***
113.19 112.96* 112.53* 112.27* 111.82*

4 Hour USDJPY Chart

usdjpy chart

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.