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AUDUSD and NZDUSD bear trends questioned

AUDUSD

  • We last looked at the AUDUSD and NZDUSD currency pairs here
    on 20 th May highlighting
    intermediate-term bear trends.
  • The rebounds seen in late May, however, have begun to question these bear
    themes.
  • An AUDUSD Forex rate push above .6959 would signal an intermediate-term
    shift to neutral, with a similar shift seen by the NZDUSD FX rate through
    .6559.

 

AUDUSD bias flips higher, risk above key .6959

A firm rebound Friday from just below our .6899 support level (off of .6897) and to probe just through the .6937/38 recent consolidation peaks, to the negative consolidation tone, to try to build on the latter May reversal above the down trend line from mid-April, to switch risks higher into Monday.

The early February push .7073 set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT with growing risks for an intermediate-term shift to neutral above .6959.

For Today:                                                        

  • We see an upside bias for .6944 and key .6959; break here aims for .6986.
  • But below .6899/97 opens risk down to .6863/62.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6916.

  • Lower targets would be .6829 and .6738
  • What Changes This? Above .6959 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7048 is needed for a bull theme.

4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD

 

NZDUSD possible base above .6559

A setback and rebound Friday from above the cycle low at .6480, to push above modest .6532 resistance for a passable basing formation attempt, to build on the latter May recovery above the down trend line from March and flip the bias higher into Monday.

The April push below .6716 set an intermediate-term bear theme, BUT with growing risks for an intermediate-term shift to neutral above .6559.

For Today:

  • We see an upside bias for .6547 and key .6559; break here aims for .6591.
  • But below .6495/93 opens risk down to .6480 and .6471.

Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .6347 and .6195

  • What Changes This? Above .6559 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .6653 is needed for a bull theme.

 

4 Hour Chart

NZDUSD

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