- In our article published 31st May, we highlighted the threat for both EURUSD and GBPUSD to undergo upside corrections, before the intermediate-term bearish themes resume.
- However, a better than anticipated recovery for EURUSD has allowed for a prod above the key 1.1830 level, which has neutralised the intermediate-term bear trend, for an intermediate-term range theme.
- Within this range (1.1996 to 1.1509), risks are skewed upwards towards 1.1996, above which would see a bullish intermediate-term shift.
- GBPUSD stays for now in an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT with a bias up towards 1.3618, only above which shifts the intermediate-term outlook from bearish back to neutral
EURUSD Upside threat intact
A dip and a rebound Friday from below 1.1782 minimal support, but from above the better 1.1714 level (off of 1.1725), to sustain upside pressures from Thursday’s probe above key 1.1830 resistance, to keep the bias higher for Monday.
The early June push above 1.1830 switched the intermediate-term outlook to neutral from bearish (range 1.1996 to 1.1509), BUT with risks skewed towards 1.1996 for a bullish intermediate-term shift.
- We see an upside bias for 1.1840/54; break here aims for 1.1903, maybe for 1.1946.
- But below 1.1751 targets 1.1725/14 and maybe aims for 1.1663.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1996 to 1.1509.
- Upside Risks: Above 1.1996 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.2210, 1.2414/21 and 1.2529.
- Downside Risks: Below 1.1509 sees a bear trend to target 1.1312 and 1.1134.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour EURUSD Chart
GBPUSD Still a rebound bias
A Friday spike below intimal 1.3371 support, but then a rebound from above the 1.3339 level (off of 1.3353), to sustain upside forces from the prior prod above 1.3443 and 1,3466 resistances AND last Tuesday’s bounce from the 13294/93 support area, keeping risks higher Monday.
The early May plunge through 1.3710 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
- We see an upside bias for 1.3473; break here aims for the 1.3492/3500 area, possibly towards 1.3569/72 area.
- But below 1.3353 aims for 1.3339 and maybe targets 1.3294/93.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3040/27 and 1.3000.
- Lower targets would be 1.2773 and 1.2587.
- What Changes This? Above 1.3618 shifts the intermediate-term outlook from bearish back to neutral, but only to bullish above 1.3998.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart