- A mixed tone for the EURUSD and GBPUSD FX pairs through mid-January, with EURUSD questioning its intermediate-term bullish trend, whilst GBPUSD has just recently shifted to more bullish.
- The EURUSD currency pair previously signalled a more bullish tone in early 2019 with the push above the start of year spike high at 1.1545. But subsequent losses, partially driven by political concerns regarding Greece, have now seriously questioned this bullish tone.
- The Pound, however, has seen a strong advance into the middle of January, despite ongoing Brexit confusion. The perception of fading prospects of a “no deal” outcome has seen the Pound rally across G10 currencies and the GBPUSD FX rate shift to a more bullish theme on the chart.
EURUSD Downside threat increasing to key 1.1308 and 1.1268/62 supports
A push lower Friday through 1.1369 support having stalled back from below 1.1455 resistance (from 1.1410), sustaining negative pressures from the selloff last week through various January supports, to keep the immediate risks lower for Monday.
The early January surge above 1.1545 set an intermediate-term bull theme, BUT risks is growing for an intermediate-term shift back to neutral below 1.1308 and even to bearish below 1.1268/62.
- We see a downside bias for 1.1344/36; break here aims for key 1.1308.
- But above 1.1455 opens risk up to 1.1490, maybe 1.1541/45 and 1.1570/81, maybe critical 1.1268/62.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.1621.
- Higher targets would be 1.1815 and 1.2000.
- What Changes This? Below 1.1308 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.1268/62 is needed for a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour EURUSD Chart
GBPUSD Upside bias intact (despite a setback)
A setback Friday through carious modest supports, but whilst holding onto the 1.2843 level we still see upside forces from the push through key 1.2928 resistance and the prior surge through the key 1.2840/64 area since the strong rebound from 1.2668 to keep the bias higher into Monday.
The mid-January push up through 1.2928 set an intermediate-term bullish outlook.
- We see an upside bias for 1.2909 and 1.2962; break here aims for 1.3000/01 and maybe 1.3030.
- But below 1.2831 aims for 1.2750 and maybe targets critical 1.2668.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3175.
- Higher targets would be 1.3299 and 1.3473.
- What Changes This? Below 2668 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.2513 is needed for a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart