- In our last report on EURUSD and GBPUSD here on 21st January we looked at downside risks for EURUSD and an ongoing upside threat for GBPUSD.
- The EURUSD FX rate has subsequently sold off below 1.1308 since as we had flagged in that article and therefore, neutralised the previous intermediate-term bullish theme, now leaving an intermediate-term range we define as 1.1268/62 to 1.1570, but with the short-term bias currently to the upside.
- The GBPUSD currency pair has extended January gains through ongoing Brexit developments and retains an intermediate-term bullish theme from a technical analysis perspective.
EURUSD risks stay higher
A resilient consolidation for much of Wednesday then a post-Fed surge through 1.1455; and 1.1490 resistances, sustaining positive tone from last week’s surge up through the notable 1.1394/1410 resistance area, keeping risks higher for Thursday.
The latter January prod below the 1.1308 level confirmed an intermediate-term range theme, seen as 1.1268/62 to 1.1570.
- For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 1.1508; break here aims for 1.1541/45, maybe for key 1.1570.
- But below 1.1448 opens risk down to 1.1404/1389.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1268/62 to 1.1570.
- Upside Risks: Above 1.1570 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1621, 1.1815 and 1.2000.
- Downside Risks: Below 1.1268/62 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 108.39.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour EURUSD Chart
GBPUSD rebound bias
A dip Wednesday after Tuesday’s selloff below 1.3136 and 1.3061 supports but rebounding from just below our 1.3055 level (from 1.3053) and whilst holding above here we hang onto very short-term bull forces from the latter January surging rally above multiple resistances as high as the swing high from last November at 1.3175, to just keep the bias higher into Thursday.
The mid-January push up through 1.2928 set an intermediate-term bullish outlook.
- We see an upside bias for 1.3169; break here aims for 1.3218/36 and maybe towards 1.3258, 13277, 1.3299.
- But below 3053 aims at 1.3010 and maybe targets 1.2941.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3175.
- Higher targets would be 1.3299 and 1.3473.
- What Changes This? Below 2831/29 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.2668 is needed for a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart