- In our 21st February report in which we last reviewed the GBPUSD and EURUSD currency pairs we indicated GBPUSD risk for an intermediate-term bullish shift again and the short-term bias back higher in the range for EURUSD.
- In subsequent trading, the Pound has re-energized to the upside in late February as fears of a No Deal Brexit have continued to ease, with possibility of an extension to the Article 50 deadline date on March 29th.
- This has seen the GBPUSD Forex rate surge through key 1.3218 and 1.3299 resistances, for an intermediate-term bullish shift.
- The EURUSD currency pair has continued its rebound from the bottom of an intermediate-term range (we view as 1.1214 to 1.1570), with the short-term bias remaining to the upside.
GBPUSD Holding onto upside forces
A further dip Friday through 1.3231 initial support, but holding above the stronger 1.3140 level, to hold onto upside forces from this week’s surge higher through a key 1.3299 peak and previously above 1.3218, to leave risk higher for Monday.
The late February surge through 1.3218 set an intermediate-term bullish trend
- We see an upside bias for 1.3286; break here aims for 1.3350/63 and maybe towards 1.3397.
- But below 1.3170 opens risk down to 1.3140, which we would look to try to hold.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3473 and 1.3608
- What Changes This? Below 1.2967 shifts the outlook back to neutral; through 1.2771 is needed for a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour GBP/USD Chart
EURUSD Positive tone still just intact
A rally and a setback on Friday after an erratic Thursday tone to question the positive tone, but the late February push above the 1.1404 resistance sustains short-term positive pressures from the strong rebound from mid-February off of 1.1274, keeping risks higher for Monday.
We see an intermediate-term range theme as 1.1214 to 1.1570, BUT with risks for an intermediate-term bear shift below the lower level.
- We see an upside bias for 1.1420; break here quickly aims for 1.1434, maybe 1.1488.
- But below 1.1339 quickly opens risk down to 1.1315, maybe 1.1274.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1268/62 to 1.1570.
- Upside Risks: Above 1.1570 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.1621, 1.1815 and 1.2000.
- Downside Risks: Below 1.1268/62 sees a bear trend to target 1.1119, 1.1000 and 108.39.
Resistance and Support:
4 Hour EUR/USD Chart